RESOLVING NOWLIVE
RESOLVED YESWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
LOCKS 40MWill Trump say "Million", "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Texas?Elections
RESOLVED NOWill the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) win seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary elections?
LOCKS 23H 35MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on October 8?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill ADI win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?
LOCKS 25H 34MWill the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?Elections
RESOLVED NOWill ADI win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?
LOCKS 25H 34MWill the Labour Party candidate win less than 30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Elections
RESOLVED NOWill Ukraine target Moscow on October 3, 2026?
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The Fed

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Event 41 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Discussion →
Event 10 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmDiscussion →
Event 24 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmDiscussion →
Event 3 of 74Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Will Warsh say "Bank" or "Asset" 10+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdfDiscussion →
Event 1 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Discussion →
Event 2 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 28 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 4 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be less than or equal to 1.1%?This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in August 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on September 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Discussion →
Event 12 of 74Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?The September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on September 16, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the September Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 6 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in August?This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Discussion →
Event 15 of 74Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by September 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "No change" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "Hike 25 bps" option's hourly odds value in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as the "No change" option being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the "No change" option or the "Hike 25 bps" option in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing before October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both the "No change" option and the "Hike 25 bps" option between market creation and October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the "No change" option is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the "No change" option and the "Hike 25 bps" option in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/fed-october-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.Discussion →
Event 11 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Discussion →
Event 7 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Discussion →
Event 8 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.0% or less in August?This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Discussion →
Event 9 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.3% or more in August?This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Discussion →
Event 13 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference?Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on September 16, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such statement by Warsh happens by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdfDiscussion →
Event 14 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Discussion →
Event 5 of 74Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.80 in August?This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the August data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The August release is presently scheduled for September 11, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.Discussion →
Event 29 of 74Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Fed rate hike in 2026?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
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Resolution log

WhenEventActionDetail
10/1/2026, 6:15:18 AMLisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/30/2026, 12:45:35 AMNo change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by September 30?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
9/16/2026, 9:15:48 PMWill no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/16/2026, 9:15:28 PMFed rate hike in 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
9/16/2026, 9:15:09 PMWill Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/16/2026, 8:15:14 PMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/16/2026, 8:15:09 PMWill no one dissent the September Fed decision?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
9/11/2026, 2:45:15 PMWill Core CPI YoY be 2.0% or less in August?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/11/2026, 2:45:10 PMWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.3% or more in August?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/11/2026, 2:45:10 PMWill Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/11/2026, 2:45:09 PMWill a dozen eggs cost <$1.80 in August?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/11/2026, 2:45:09 PMWill annual inflation be 2.9% or less in August?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/10/2026, 9:15:09 PMWill Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be less than or equal to 1.1%?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/28/2026, 6:01:22 PMWill Warsh say "Bank" or "Asset" 10+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
8/23/2026, 8:31:08 AMWill the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:31:07 AMFed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:31:06 AMWill the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:22 AMFed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:21 AMJerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)