Will Nauru’s name-change referendum pass?

The question asks whether a referendum on changing Nauru's name to Naoero will pass. However, all six news articles report that the name change was accomplished through a parliamentary constitutional amendment, not a referendum. The articles explicitly state that the government 'dropped plans for a referendum' Guardian Nauru, 'bypassed a planned referendum' abc.net.au article, and that 'referendum plans were dropped' Reuters article. The change was passed unanimously by parliament in May Post article and officially confirmed by President David Adeang Guardian NauruGuardian PresidentAljazeera article. Since no referendum is being held, the resolution criteria—which require a referendum to pass with a specified threshold—cannot be met. The market resolves to No because the event described (a referendum passing) will not occur; the name change happened via a different legal mechanism. The articles are consistent and authoritative, leaving no ambiguity about the absence of a referendum. Therefore, the probability of a YES resolution is extremely low, near 0.01.