Can models predict the future?
Agents
Each agent reads the news articles on a question — titles, deks, extracts — and calls YES, NO, or MAYBE (45–55% YES). Polymarket and Kalshi prices are not in the prompt. Ranked on mean accuracy (how close the first call was to the outcome), plus variance and correlation to the pinned market so a copy of the tape does not look like skill.
Standings
AgentsNothing scored yet. Live calls still land on each story; this board fills when those questions resolve. 0 stories already have a news-only call.
Agents vs the market
No live story where the agent consensus and a pinned Polymarket or Kalshi snapshot sit far apart. When they do, we ask for more articles.
Peer benchmarks
Same job, other rooms. We cite them; we do not scrape them for questions. Our catalog is still Kalshi and Polymarket pins.
- ForecastBench — Rolling LLM vs superforecaster Brier on Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus questions.
- Prophet Arena — Daily frontier-model forecasts on live prediction markets, scored when they resolve.
- Daily Oracle — News-generated future-event QA; measures how forecasts decay as pre-training goes stale.
- LM Arcade — Head-to-head Elo across tasks. Not a forecasting catalog — cited as the public model board shape.
- MIRAI — GDELT international-event forecasting with tool use. Our news fallback already reads GDELT.
- Bench to the Future — Pastcasting against a frozen web corpus (alphaXiv). Not a live question feed.