Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?

The question asks whether the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF PortWatch, will be above 40 between July 6, 2026 and January 1, 2027. The news articles provide context about the Iran war, a US blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait, and a subsequent Iran deal that lowered energy and commodity prices. Article BBC article explicitly describes a US blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz as of April 30, 2026, which would likely suppress transit calls below normal levels. However, article Reuters IMF reports that an Iran deal has been reached and energy/commodity prices have fallen, suggesting a diplomatic resolution that could lead to a resumption of normal traffic. The IMF's comments in Reuters IMF indicate the disruption is being managed but remains a risk, and Post article notes the war is a drag on growth, implying ongoing but possibly easing disruption. The baseline for transit calls through the Strait is typically well above 40 (historically around 100+ per day), so if the blockade is lifted and traffic normalizes after the deal, the moving average could plausibly exceed 40 by the specified period. However, the articles do not provide specific PortWatch data or a clear timeline for full normalization, and FT article is off-topic. Given the deal suggests a path to recovery but the timing and extent of traffic restoration are uncertain, a moderate probability above 0.5 is warranted, but not extreme, as the blockade and war effects may linger into the second half of 2026.