Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be less than 600,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Maine Senate election will be less than 600,000. Maine is a small state with a population of about 1.4 million, and Senate races there typically draw between 500,000 and 700,000 votes depending on competitiveness. The 2020 Senate race between Susan Collins and Sara Gideon saw about 800,000 votes, but that was a high-turnout presidential year. In a midterm, turnout is lower. The 2022 Maine Senate race (Collins vs. David Costello) saw about 600,000 votes. The 2026 race features Republican Susan Collins, a long-incumbent, against Democrat Troy Jackson, who has been endorsed by a major abortion-rights group Guardian article. The race is considered competitive, which could boost turnout. However, the articles do not provide specific polling or turnout projections. Given that the 2022 midterm Senate race in Maine was around 600,000 votes, and 2026 is also a midterm, the probability that total votes are less than 600,000 is moderate but not high. The presence of a competitive race and national attention (e.g., abortion rights, ICE shooting) could increase turnout Guardian articleNYT article. But midterm turnout in Maine has historically been lower than presidential years. The resolution criteria specify that if the reported value falls exactly between brackets, it resolves to the higher range, meaning if it's exactly 600,000, it would not be less than 600,000. Given the uncertainty, I estimate a 20% chance that total votes are below 600,000, as the race is competitive and could draw more voters, but it's not a sure thing. The articles do not provide enough data to make a more extreme call.