Will João Campos win the Pernambuco Governor election?

The available polling data from late September 2026 shows a very tight race between incumbent Governor Raquel Lyra and challenger João Campos. A Quaest survey (September 29) shows them tied at 42% each in the stimulated first-round vote Ground Dispute. A Datafolha survey (September 24) shows Lyra at 48% and Campos at 44%, a technical tie within the margin of error, and in a simulated runoff Lyra leads 51% to 45% Ground First. Both polls indicate the race is extremely close, with no clear frontrunner. Given that the election is still a few days away (October 4, 2026) and the margin of error in these polls, the outcome is highly uncertain. There is no evidence of a decisive lead for either candidate, and the articles do not provide any other factors (such as major endorsements, scandals, or campaign finance advantages) that would break the tie. Therefore, the probability that João Campos wins is approximately 50%, reflecting the current polling deadlock and the lack of a clear advantage.