Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be less than 1,000,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election will be less than 1,000,000. Historical context: Connecticut is a small state with about 2.2 million registered voters, and gubernatorial elections typically see turnout around 1.1–1.3 million votes in midterms. For example, the 2018 gubernatorial race had about 1.1 million votes, and 2022 had roughly 1.0–1.1 million. The 2026 election features an incumbent, Ned Lamont, running for a third term, which may affect turnout. Incumbents often face lower turnout if the race is not competitive, but Lamont is favored in the primary Aljazeera article, and the general election could still draw significant votes. The articles do not provide specific polling or turnout estimates, but they indicate a contested primary and ongoing political activity Aljazeera article. Given the historical range, the probability that total votes fall below 1,000,000 is moderately likely but not certain. The resolution criteria specify that if results are not known by March 31, 2027, it resolves to the lowest bracket, which would be a YES, but that is a low-probability event. Considering the state's voting patterns and the presence of a well-known incumbent, I estimate a 60% chance that turnout stays under 1,000,000, as midterm gubernatorial races in Connecticut have occasionally dipped below that threshold in less competitive years. However, the margin is thin, and a competitive general election could push it over. Thus, I lean slightly toward YES but remain near the MAYBE range.