Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

The question asks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal (7-day moving average of transit calls ≥60) by September 15, 2026. The articles indicate current traffic is below the 10-day average due to the US-Israel-Iran war, with no sign of recovery to normal levels. While diplomatic efforts (Iran-Oman talks) are ongoing, they are still in negotiation and no agreement has been reached AP articleReuters articleFT Iran. Iran's threat to 46 ships suggests continued disruption FT Iran. The resolution requires a specific data threshold (≥60) from IMF Portwatch, and there is no evidence in the articles that traffic has already recovered or will recover by the deadline. Given the ongoing conflict and unresolved negotiations, the probability of reaching normal traffic levels by September 15 is low, but not negligible, as diplomatic progress could lead to a deal. The articles do not provide any data on current transit call numbers, so the baseline is uncertain, but the overall context suggests a significant risk of continued disruption. Therefore, I estimate a 30% chance of YES, leaning toward NO but not extreme due to the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough and the lack of precise data.