Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

The available article indicates that the Democratic Senate primary in New Hampshire is between veteran Congressman Chris Pappas and first-time candidate Karishma Manzur. A late August UNH Survey Center poll shows Pappas leading Manzur by 13 points, which, while tighter than earlier margins, still gives Pappas a substantial lead. Pappas also has a significant financial advantage with over $5 million in cash on hand compared to Manzur's grassroots-funded campaign. These factors suggest that Pappas is the frontrunner, making a Manzur victory less likely but not impossible given the tightening trend. The article does not provide any other polls or evidence that Manzur has overtaken Pappas, so the probability is set below 0.5, reflecting a 'NO' leaning forecast. The resolution criteria specify that the market resolves based on the primary winner, and with no indication of a canceled primary, the current evidence points to Pappas as the probable nominee. Ground article