Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?

The question asks whether no Somaliland parliamentary election will occur before 2027, with the resolution criteria noting that elections are scheduled for late March 2026. The provided news articles focus almost entirely on Israel's recognition of Somaliland, diplomatic visits, and regional reactions, with no direct reporting on the status, scheduling, or likelihood of the parliamentary election. None of the articles mention the Somaliland National Electoral Commission, election preparations, political party dynamics, or any factors that would clearly indicate whether the election will be held on time, delayed, or cancelled. Given the absence of relevant information, the probability must remain near the neutral 0.5, as the articles neither support nor contradict the possibility of an election occurring before 2027. The only tangential relevance is that the geopolitical tensions described (e.g., Israeli recognition, African Union emergency sessions, and the establishment of the Northeast State) could potentially destabilize the region and affect election logistics, but this is speculative and not directly addressed in the sources. Therefore, based solely on the provided articles, there is insufficient evidence to make a confident call either way, and the probability of no election before 2027 is estimated at 0.5.