Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 11, 2026?

The Houthis have demonstrated significant military advances along Yemen's western coastline, including the capture of the Red Sea port of Mocha Ground article. This positions them to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for commercial shipping Ground article. The articles indicate that Houthi control of this area could disrupt Red Sea shipping and potentially stop Saudi oil exports AFR article. While the resolution criteria require a direct kinetic strike or seizure of a commercial ship (not military vessels), the Houthis' recent territorial gains and their stated intent to target shipping suggest a heightened probability of such an event before September 2026. However, the articles do not report any specific successful attack on a commercial ship as of now, and the timeline extends over two years, leaving room for diplomatic or military interventions that could reduce the likelihood. The probability is set above 0.55 (YES) but not extremely high, as the situation is dynamic and the criteria are specific.