Will Democrats win fewer than 8 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections?

The question asks whether Democrats will win fewer than 8 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterms. Currently, Texas has 38 House seats, and Democrats hold 13 of them (as of the 2024 election). A shift to fewer than 8 would require a net loss of at least 5 seats for Democrats, which is a significant swing in a state that has been trending slightly more competitive but still leans Republican. Article NYT article notes that the 2026 election could be 'more complicated for Democrats than polls suggest,' citing factors like redistricting, candidate quality, and voter turnout dynamics that may hinder a Democratic wave. This suggests that while a Republican gain is possible, a Democratic collapse to under 8 seats is not the baseline expectation. Article Guardian article discusses Democratic plans to investigate Trump if they win Congress, implying that Democrats are optimistic about retaking the House nationally, but that does not directly address Texas-specific seat counts. Given the current Democratic baseline of 13 seats, the need for a net loss of 5+ seats, and the caution in NYT article about overinterpreting polls, the probability that Democrats fall below 8 seats is low but not impossible. I assess this as a NO scenario (below 0.45), with a probability of 0.35, reflecting the structural challenges for Democrats in Texas but acknowledging the possibility of a strong Republican year.