Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?

The question asks whether the 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz on September 30, 2026, will be between 0 and 5. The articles describe ongoing negotiations between Iran and Oman to reopen the strait, but they do not provide any quantitative data on current or projected transit counts. The resolution depends on a specific numerical value from IMF Portwatch, which is not mentioned in any article. Without actual data, the probability must be based on the qualitative situation: the strait is currently blockaded, but talks are progressing. The articles suggest a possible reopening, but the timing and the exact transit numbers are unknown. Given the lack of quantitative evidence, the probability is best estimated as a coin flip, near 0.5.