Will CAQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?

The question asks whether the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) will finish second in the 2026 Quebec general election. Article 1 indicates that the Parti Québécois (PQ) is currently leading in polls, ahead of both the Liberal Party and the CAQ, which currently holds the most seats. This suggests the CAQ is not leading and could be vulnerable to dropping to second or even third place. However, the same article notes the PQ is hoping to make gains, implying they are not yet assured of first place, and the CAQ could still finish first or second. Article 2 focuses on CAQ leader Christine Fréchette's allegations of U.S. interference, which may be a campaign tactic to rally support, but does not provide clear evidence of the CAQ's final standing. The polls cited in Article 1 show the PQ leading, but the margin and exact positions of the CAQ and Liberals are not specified. Given that the CAQ currently has the most seats and is a major party, it is plausible they could finish second if the PQ wins first, but the Liberals are also a strong contender for second. The lack of detailed polling data and the uncertainty of the election outcome lead to a moderate probability estimate, leaning slightly against the CAQ finishing second due to the PQ's lead and the competitive field.