Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be less than 600,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas will be less than 600,000. The only provided article NYT article covers the 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate primary election results, not the general election. Primary turnout is typically much lower than general election turnout. In Arkansas, a midterm Senate general election usually draws well over 600,000 votes; for example, the 2022 Senate race had over 900,000 votes. The primary results in NYT article show a fraction of that, but the question explicitly refers to the 'midterm election' (the general election in November), not the primary. Since the article does not provide general election turnout data, it is not directly informative for the resolution. However, given historical patterns, general election turnout in Arkansas for a Senate race is almost always above 600,000, making it unlikely to fall below that threshold. Still, without specific data from the article, and considering that turnout can vary, a moderate probability is appropriate. The article's primary data is irrelevant to the general election question, so the evidence is thin. Therefore, I assign a probability of 0.6, leaning toward NO (i.e., votes will be >= 600,000), but with uncertainty due to lack of direct evidence.