Will Lula win less than 35% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

The question asks whether Lula will win less than 35% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The articles, while from 2022, describe a very close race between Lula and Bolsonaro Reuters articleGuardian article, with Lula as the incumbent president facing a tight election Guardian article. In 2022, Lula won about 48.4% of the valid vote in the first round, far above 35%. The 2026 election is still over a year away, and no current polling or vote share data is provided. The articles focus on Lula's betting ban AP articleGround article and the closeness of the race, but do not suggest his support has collapsed to below 35%. Given that Lula is a strong incumbent with a history of high first-round vote shares, and no evidence of a dramatic drop, the probability that he falls below 35% is low but not impossible, as political dynamics could shift. I assign a probability of 0.35, reflecting a moderate NO leaning, as the evidence does not support a YES outcome.