Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?

The question asks whether the Democratic candidate will win the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election. The only article provided Ground article reports that former Illinois House GOP leader Jim Durkin has endorsed the Democratic incumbent, JB Pritzker, over the Republican candidate Darren Bailey. This cross-party endorsement from a prominent Republican suggests that Pritzker has broad appeal and that even some within the GOP view Bailey unfavorably. The article also notes that Republicans dismissed Durkin as part of the 'old guard,' indicating internal party divisions that could weaken Bailey's support. While the article does not provide polling data or other electoral forecasts, the fact that a key Republican figure publicly backs the Democrat, combined with Pritzker's incumbency advantage and the generally Democratic lean of Illinois in statewide elections, points to a high likelihood of a Democratic win. However, the article is limited in scope and does not cover other factors such as campaign funding, national political trends, or potential third-party candidates, so a probability of 0.85 reflects strong confidence but acknowledges some uncertainty.