Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

The question asks whether the Fed will follow a Hike–Pause–Hike pattern across the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings. The resolution criteria define a hike as a higher upper bound, a pause as unchanged, and any cut or other combination as 'Other'. The available news articles consistently point toward a low probability of this specific sequence. Article Ground Fed notes that Fed Governor Jefferson urges patience on rates, while Kashkari sees more hikes ahead, but the tone is cautious. Article Reuters Gold and Ground GLOBAL indicate that market expectations for an October rate hike have faded, with gold gaining as those bets recede. Article Reuters Fed quotes Kashkari expecting additional rate hikes into 2027 but being unsure about acting at the October meeting, suggesting a possible pause in October. Article Reuters Gold shows softer inflation data denting rate-hike bets overall. Most significantly, Article Reuters Goldman reports that Goldman Sachs now forecasts only one more quarter-point hike, in December, and that even that could be dropped if inflation continues to cool. This implies a likely pause in September and October, with a possible hike in December, which would be Pause–Pause–Hike, not Hike–Pause–Hike. The articles do not provide any evidence that the Fed will hike in September; instead, the consensus is for a pause or no action until later. Therefore, the probability of the exact Hike–Pause–Hike pattern is very low, estimated at 0.15.