Will Gabriel Attal, but not Édouard Philippe, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Gabriel Attal has formally launched his presidential bid, as reported by Reuters Reuters Former, making him an active candidate. However, Édouard Philippe is also a prominent centrist candidate and is favored in opinion polls Reuters Former. The resolution requires Attal to be on the ballot and Philippe not to be. Given that both are running, and Philippe appears to have stronger polling support, it is more likely that Philippe will secure a spot on the ballot. Attal faces challenges including rivalry with Philippe and association with an unpopular president Reuters Former. The crowded centrist field and the possibility that neither or both could be on the ballot further reduce the probability of the specific scenario where Attal is included and Philippe is not. Based on the reported facts, the probability is assessed as below 0.5, but not extremely low because Attal's formal entry keeps his candidacy viable.