Will voter turnout be less than 66% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

The question asks whether voter turnout will be less than 66% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The articles describe an election that is highly consequential, taking place for the first time since the October 7, 2023 attack, with Prime Minister Netanyahu facing a strong challenger and issues of war, security, and accountability dominating the campaign Aljazeera articleabc.net.au articleNYT article. High-stakes elections in Israel have historically driven turnout above 66% (e.g., 2021: 67.4%, 2022: 70.6%). The articles emphasize the unprecedented nature of this election and the intense public engagement, which typically boosts participation. There is no mention of factors that would suppress turnout, such as voter apathy, boycotts, or logistical problems. The Economist article notes that expat voters could help unseat Netanyahu, indicating active mobilization Economist article. While the resolution criteria are clear and the election is still over a year away, the available reporting strongly suggests a high-turnout environment. Therefore, the probability that turnout falls below 66% is low, but not extremely low, as unforeseen events could still affect participation. I assign a probability of 0.35.