Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

The question asks whether Republicans will win any Senate or Governor's election in a state that Trump won in 2024 but not in 2020 (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona). The articles paint a bleak picture for Republicans in the 2026 midterms. Article NYT Senate shows Democrats leading in Texas and Alaska, and competitive in Ohio and Iowa, though these are not the target states. Article Guardian article and NYT Prospects report that the Republican super PAC Senate Leadership Fund has pulled funding from North Carolina (not a target state) and redirected to Kansas, indicating pessimism about holding seats. Article smh.com.au article describes Republican prospects as 'catastrophically bad' with Democrats leading in several Senate races. Article Aljazeera article notes Trump's low approval ratings in Ohio and economic headwinds, but Ohio is not a target state. None of the articles specifically mention the six target states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona) or provide polling data for them. The articles focus on Senate races in states like Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina, which are not the states in question. The lack of direct evidence about the target states makes it difficult to assess the probability. However, the overall negative environment for Republicans, with Democrats leading in multiple races and Republicans pulling funding, suggests that Republicans are struggling even in states they have won before. The target states are all swing states that Trump narrowly won in 2024, and the articles indicate a challenging environment for Republicans nationally. Given the absence of specific information about the target states, but the strong signals of a Democratic-leaning environment, the probability is set below 0.5 but not extremely low, as the articles do not rule out Republican wins in these states entirely. The probability of 0.35 reflects a cautious assessment that Republicans are unlikely to win in these states given the current trends, but with uncertainty due to lack of direct data.