Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont Lieutenant Governor election?

Vermont is a strongly Democratic-leaning state, and the Lieutenant Governor position has been held by Democrats or Progressives in recent cycles. The AP-NORC poll indicates that voters favor Democrats on key issues AP article, which could boost Democratic candidates in down-ballot races like Lieutenant Governor. Additionally, a Reuters analysis predicts a Democratic surge that could affect even Republican states, suggesting a favorable national environment for Democrats in 2026 Reuters article. While Vermont's gubernatorial race is competitive, the Lieutenant Governor race often follows partisan trends. There is no specific polling or candidate information for this exact race, so the probability is moderately high but not extreme, accounting for possible Republican strength or a unique local candidate. The cited articles support a Democratic advantage but do not guarantee a win, hence a 0.65 probability.