Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?

The question asks whether Russia will capture the Sloviansk train station by December 31, 2026. The resolution criteria are strict: the station must be shaded red on the ISW map (or equivalent) by that date, or actual control must be established via a negotiated settlement. The news articles provide context but do not report any capture of Sloviansk or its train station. Article BBC article discusses a Russian troop build-up threatening Kostyantynivka, which is a step toward Sloviansk but not the capture itself. Articles Reuters Russian and Reuters Ukraine report Russian strikes on Sloviansk that killed civilians and damaged a power station, indicating ongoing attacks but not territorial control. Article Guardian article mentions a compulsory evacuation of children from Sloviansk due to Russian advances, which suggests increased danger but again does not confirm capture. None of the articles indicate that Russia has taken the train station or even the city. Given the timeline to December 2026, there is ample time for a change, but the current evidence shows no capture. The probability is set below 0.5 because the articles do not support a near-term capture, but not extremely low because the war is dynamic and Russian forces are advancing in the region. The 0.35 reflects a cautious assessment that capture is possible but not likely based on available reporting.