Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.80 in August?

The question asks whether a dozen eggs will cost less than $1.80 in August 2026, based on the BLS CPI data published by the St. Louis Fed. The provided news articles all concern a single egg recall event in the present (likely 2025), involving Midwest Poultry Services and about 1.59 million dozen eggs. While a recall of this size could temporarily reduce supply and put upward pressure on egg prices in the affected regions, the articles do not provide any specific price data, national average price levels, or forecasts for August 2026. The recall is a short-term supply disruption, not a structural change that would guarantee prices remain below $1.80 more than a year later. Historically, egg prices have been volatile, with periods of high prices due to avian flu and other supply shocks, but also periods of lower prices. Without any evidence in the articles about the expected price level in August 2026, the base rate for a dozen eggs costing under $1.80 is uncertain. Given that the articles only describe a recall and do not indicate that prices are currently below $1.80 or trending down, and given that $1.80 is a relatively low threshold compared to recent years' average prices (which have often been above $2.00), the probability of the price being below $1.80 is low but not negligible. The recall could cause a temporary spike, but by August 2026, supply would likely recover. Therefore, I estimate a 20% chance that the price will be below $1.80.