Will Abdul El-Sayed run 9 or more points behind Jocelyn Benson?

The question asks whether Abdul El-Sayed will run 9 or more points behind Jocelyn Benson in the 2026 Michigan general election. The resolution criteria define this as El-Sayed's vote share in the U.S. Senate race being at least 9 percentage points lower than Benson's vote share in the gubernatorial race. The only available article TIME article reports that El-Sayed narrowly won the Democratic Senate primary by about 15,000 votes out of nearly 1.5 million cast, indicating a very close primary victory. The article also notes that some party leaders view El-Sayed as 'less competitive' against the Republican nominee Mike Rogers, suggesting potential weakness in the general election. However, the article does not provide any polling data, general election vote share estimates, or comparisons between El-Sayed and Benson's electoral prospects. Without specific information about Benson's expected performance or the general election dynamics, it is difficult to assess the likely margin between the two candidates. The article's mention of El-Sayed's progressive platform and the primary being a 'proxy fight' over the party's future suggests he may energize the base but could also face challenges with moderate voters, which could contribute to a gap. However, the lack of direct evidence about the relative vote shares makes a confident prediction impossible. Given the limited information, a moderate probability of 0.35 is assigned, leaning toward NO because the primary was close and the article does not indicate a large expected gap, but uncertainty remains high.