Saxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?

The question asks whether a snap election will be called in Saxony-Anhalt by the end of 2026. The recent state election (article 1) gave the AfD 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats, three short of a majority. All other parties except the BSW have ruled out a coalition with the AfD (article 2), creating a deadlock. Article 3 notes that if no minister-president is elected after three rounds of voting, parliament could dissolve itself and trigger a new election. This mechanism provides a plausible path to a snap election. However, the resolution criteria require formal dissolution or scheduling of an early election, not just a failed government formation. The BSW's five seats make it a pivotal player, and its openness to cooperation (article 2) could still lead to a government without a snap election. The CDU's Sven Schulze opposes the AfD (article 4), but the CDU might prefer a minority government or other arrangement over a new election. The timeline extends to end of 2026, giving time for negotiations. The probability is moderate but tilted toward no snap election because parties have incentives to avoid another costly election and may find a workable arrangement, even if unstable. The deadlock is real but not yet at the point of dissolution. I assign 0.35, reflecting a meaningful chance of a snap election but not a majority probability.