Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

The question asks whether Likud will win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The available articles provide conflicting poll data. One poll from Channel 13 projects Likud at 19 seats, which is below the 20-seat threshold FT article. However, another poll from Kantar Israel for Kan Reshet Bet projects Likud at 23 seats, which is above the threshold NYT article. These polls are snapshots taken at different times and reflect different methodologies, making the outcome uncertain. The election is scheduled for October 27, 2026, and polls can shift significantly over time. The articles do not provide a definitive consensus, and the political landscape may change. Given the conflicting evidence, the probability that Likud wins fewer than 20 seats is slightly above 50%, but not overwhelmingly so, as the polls are close to the threshold and subject to change.