Will Likud be a part of the next government in Israel?

The question asks whether Likud will be part of the next government in Israel before January 1, 2028. The resolution criteria require that Likud holds at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the first stable government formed after the next election. According to the Economist's poll tracker, Likud remains the most popular single party in Israel Economist article. This suggests that Likud is likely to be a central player in coalition negotiations. While the same article notes that Netanyahu's governing coalition has lost support, Likud's continued strength as the largest party makes it highly probable that it will be included in any viable coalition, as it is difficult to form a government without Likud's seats. The Financial Times reports a Kan 11 poll projecting 57 seats for Jewish parties opposed to Netanyahu, against 52 for coalition parties, with Likud and Yashar tied at 23 seats each FT article. This indicates a competitive landscape, but even if the opposition bloc wins a majority, Likud's 23 seats would make it a necessary partner for any coalition, unless the opposition can form a narrow government without Likud, which is challenging given the fragmentation of Israeli politics. Historically, Likud has been a dominant force, and its leader Benjamin Netanyahu has a strong track record of coalition-building. The New York Times provides general news about Likud but does not offer specific polling or coalition data NYT article. Given Likud's persistent popularity and the difficulty of forming a government without it, the probability that Likud will be part of the next government is high, estimated at 0.85.