Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?

The question asks whether Ulrich Siegmund will become the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt after the September 2026 state election. The articles describe Siegmund as the AfD's lead candidate and a prominent figure, but they do not provide any polling or electoral forecasts that would indicate he is likely to win. In fact, the articles emphasize that the AfD is trying to win, but they do not suggest that Siegmund is the favorite. Given that the AfD has never governed a German state and that other parties have traditionally formed coalitions to exclude the AfD, the probability of Siegmund actually assuming the office is low. The articles also note that Siegmund is a controversial figure, which may further reduce his chances. Therefore, while he is a serious candidate, the likelihood of him becoming Minister-President is below 0.5, but not extremely low because the election is still far away and political dynamics could change. I assign a probability of 0.12, reflecting that he is a contender but not the likely winner.