Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?

The question asks whether Iran will conduct a qualifying military action (air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike) directed at Iraq's territory by September 15, 2026. The provided articles describe events from 2019, where Iran-backed militias in Iraq launched drones at Saudi Arabia's oil pipeline, and Iraq subsequently closed border crossings with Iran Aljazeera IraqAP articleabc.net.au articleReuters article. These articles do not report any Iranian military action targeting Iraq itself. Instead, they show Iran cooperating with Iraq on a joint investigation into drone launch sites Aljazeera Iraq, and Iraq taking precautionary measures like closing border crossings and dismissing a commander Reuters article. The articles also mention Iran's diplomatic efforts regarding the Strait of Hormuz Aljazeera Iran, which is unrelated to targeting Iraq. There is no evidence in the provided sources of any Iranian air strike or missile strike directed at Iraq's territory, nor any indication of such an action being planned or executed. The resolution criteria explicitly exclude proxy attacks (e.g., by militias) and require actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory. The articles only mention Iran-backed fighters, not direct Iranian military action against Iraq Ground article. Given the lack of any reported or imminent qualifying action, and the thin, off-topic nature of the news pack, the probability of a YES resolution is low. However, because the timeframe extends to September 2026 and future events are uncertain, I do not set the probability near zero. The available information does not support a high likelihood of Iran targeting Iraq, so a probability of 0.12 is appropriate.