Will the total vote count for all participants in Oklahoma Senate General Election be above 1000000?

The question asks whether the total vote count for all participants in the Oklahoma Senate General Election will exceed 1,000,000. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and the candidates are Republican Kevin Hern and Democrat N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas NYT articleAP Rep. Oklahoma is a strongly Republican state, and Senate races there typically draw fewer votes than presidential years. In the 2022 Oklahoma Senate general election, the total vote count was roughly 1.1 million, but that was a midterm with a competitive incumbent. In 2020, a presidential year, the Senate race drew about 1.5 million votes. However, 2026 is a midterm, and the race is not expected to be highly competitive given the state's partisan lean and the lack of a major national spotlight Aljazeera article. The primary turnout was modest, and the general election is unlikely to match the high-turnout 2020 or even the 2022 levels, especially without a presidential race or a hot statewide issue. While it is possible that total votes exceed 1,000,000, the historical pattern for non-presidential, non-competitive Senate races in Oklahoma suggests a lower turnout, making the probability of exceeding 1,000,000 below even odds. I estimate a 35% chance, leaning toward No, but not extreme because midterm Senate races in Oklahoma have occasionally approached or exceeded that threshold, and the presence of a gubernatorial race on the same ballot could boost turnout AP DecisionAljazeera article.