Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Governor General Election be above 176000?

The question asks whether the total vote count in the Wyoming Governor General Election will exceed 176,000. Historical turnout in Wyoming gubernatorial general elections provides a baseline: in 2018, the total vote was about 138,000; in 2014, about 112,000; in 2010, about 106,000. The 176,000 threshold is roughly 27% higher than the 2018 total, which was a midterm with competitive races. The 2024 general election features a Republican nominee (Eric Barlow) who won a contested primary with about 45% of the vote NYT WyomingNYT Rancher, and a Democratic nominee (Kenneth Casner) who ran unopposed in the primary Aljazeera article. While the primary saw high engagement and a rebuke of hard-right candidates NYT WyomingPost article, general election turnout in Wyoming is typically lower than presidential-year turnout. The 2024 election is a presidential year, which could boost turnout, but Wyoming's population is about 580,000, and voter registration is around 300,000. To exceed 176,000 votes, turnout would need to be near 60% of registered voters, which is possible but not typical for a non-presidential race in a state where the Republican nominee is heavily favored. The articles do not provide specific polling or turnout projections for the general election, only primary results and dynamics NYT WyomingNYT RancherPost articleAljazeera article. Given historical data and the lack of evidence for a surge, the probability is below 0.5 but not extremely low, as a presidential-year effect could push turnout higher. Thus, a moderate NO is warranted.