Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?

The only available polling data shows Juliana Brizola trailing in both the first and second round scenarios. In the first round, she has 35% of voting intentions versus Luciano Zucco's 40%, and in valid votes she trails 36% to 41% Ground article. In a hypothetical runoff, she also trails 44% to 49% Ground article. These margins are outside the typical margin of error, indicating a consistent deficit. However, the election is in October 2026, and this is just one poll from an unspecified date, so the race could shift. Given the current data, a win is possible but not the most likely outcome, so the probability is below 0.5 but not extremely low.