Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

The available articles focus on the Israeli-Lebanese conflict, EU military support, and local Christian concerns, but none provide direct evidence about the Lebanese Forces' electoral prospects in the 2026 parliamentary election. The only relevant mention is in NYT article, which notes that the Lebanese Forces party is a vocal opponent of Hezbollah and that the conflict has deepened political divisions ahead of the 2026 elections. This suggests the party is politically active and could benefit from anti-Hezbollah sentiment, but it does not indicate that it is likely to win the most seats. Historically, Lebanese Forces has not been the largest party in parliament, and the articles do not report any polling, coalition strength, or electoral dynamics that would support a high probability. Given the lack of substantive electoral data and the thin relevance of the sources, the probability of Lebanese Forces winning the most seats is low, but not negligible, as the party remains a significant political force and the situation could shift. I assign a probability of 0.2, reflecting a clear NO leaning but with some uncertainty due to the unresolved political landscape.