Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo become Prime Minister of Spain following the next Spanish general election?

The question asks whether Alberto Núñez Feijóo will become Prime Minister of Spain after the next general election, with a resolution deadline of August 22, 2028. The articles report that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has called a snap election for November 29, 2025, following the defeat of his housing measures in parliament BBC articlesbs.com.au article. This snap election is the 'next Spanish general election' referenced in the question. Polls cited in the articles suggest the conservative People's Party (PP), led by Feijóo, may emerge as the largest party sbs.com.au articleGround article. However, becoming Prime Minister requires not just being the largest party but also commanding the confidence of parliament through a formal investiture vote. Spain's fragmented political landscape often necessitates coalitions or support from multiple parties, and the PP may not secure an outright majority. The articles do not provide detailed polling on seat projections or coalition possibilities, only that the PP is 'leading in polls' Ground article. Given that Sánchez's minority government fell due to legislative defeats, the political environment remains volatile. Feijóo has a plausible path to power if the PP wins enough seats to form a government, but the uncertainty around coalition dynamics and the possibility of a left-wing bloc blocking his investiture make a YES less than even. The resolution criteria also include a long window until 2028, but the snap election is the only election mentioned, and if no government forms by August 2028, the answer is NO. Based on the limited information, a probability of 0.35 reflects a moderate chance of Feijóo becoming PM, leaning toward NO due to the challenges of forming a government without a clear majority.