Will Iran target Bahrain by September 15, 2026?

The question asks whether Iran will target Bahrain via a qualifying military action (air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike) by September 15, 2026. The resolution criteria require the action to be explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory, and not by proxy forces. The news articles indicate an ongoing conflict between Iran and the US, with Iran having already targeted US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain TIME article. Specifically, article 4 reports that 'Iran has targeted US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain as a ceasefire falters,' which appears to describe a qualifying military action (likely missile or drone strikes) directed at Bahrain. This is a direct action by Iran, not a proxy, and fits the definition of a surface-to-surface missile strike or air strike. Article 2 also mentions 'Tehran's retaliation in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait,' further supporting that Iran has already conducted strikes in Bahrain. However, the resolution criteria require the action to occur between market creation and September 15, 2026, and the articles do not specify the exact date of these strikes relative to the market's start. If the strikes occurred before the market creation, they would not count. Additionally, the articles suggest a volatile situation with potential for further escalation BBC articlesbs.com.au article, but the question is about a specific future event. Given that Iran has already demonstrated willingness to target Bahrain directly, and the conflict appears ongoing, there is a moderate-to-high probability that another qualifying strike will occur by the deadline. However, uncertainty remains about the timing and whether future strikes will be explicitly claimed by Iran or attributed to proxies. The probability is set at 0.65, reflecting a leaning toward YES based on reported past actions and continued tensions, but not extreme confidence due to the possibility of de-escalation or proxy involvement.