Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?

The question asks whether no qualifying Russia-Ukraine peace talks will take place by December 31, 2027. The resolution criteria define a qualifying meeting as a deliberate, in-person diplomatic meeting between authorized representatives aimed at discussing ceasefire, peace agreement, or substantive de-escalation, publicly acknowledged. The news articles provide limited but relevant context. Article FT article reports that a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. was delayed from early October to late October, with discussions expected to cover an energy ceasefire, the Black Sea grain corridor, and prisoner exchanges. This indicates active diplomatic efforts and a planned meeting, which, if it occurs, would qualify. However, the article also notes Moscow's lack of urgency and Kyiv's doubts, suggesting the meeting may not happen or may not be substantive. Articles Guardian article and Aljazeera article focus on ongoing military actions and Western support, not on peace talks, so they do not directly inform the probability of talks occurring. Given that a specific meeting is being arranged but faces delays and skepticism, and the time horizon extends to end-2027, there is a meaningful chance that at least one qualifying meeting occurs. However, the uncertainty is high: the conflict could continue without substantive talks, or talks could be limited to humanitarian issues (which would not qualify). The evidence is thin and does not strongly indicate either outcome. Therefore, I lean slightly toward NO (i.e., talks will occur), but with a probability below 0.5 because the planned meeting may fail and no other talks are mentioned. The probability of no talks is estimated at 0.4, meaning a 60% chance that at least one qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline, but this is a moderate estimate given the sparse and mixed signals.