Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?

The question asks whether the AfD will win the most seats in any of three German state elections in September 2026: Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin. The only article that directly addresses a specific election is Reuters article, which reports that in Saxony-Anhalt, AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund is polling at around 41% and has a 'real chance of winning.' This suggests a plausible path to a plurality in that state. However, the article does not provide comparable polling for the other two states, and no other article discusses their electoral prospects. Moreover, the AfD faces a strong 'firewall' from other parties, as noted in Economist article, which describes how the anti-AfD cordon has shaped German politics. This firewall makes it difficult for the AfD to translate high vote shares into a plurality of seats, as other parties may form coalitions to exclude them. The lack of specific polling for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, combined with the structural barriers, means that even if the AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, it is far from certain to do so in the other two. Given that the resolution counts the number of elections (0, 1, 2, or 3) and the evidence only supports a chance in one, the probability of winning at least one is moderate but not high. The absence of any article suggesting AfD leads in the other two states further reduces the likelihood. Therefore, a probability of 0.35 reflects a cautious assessment: a real chance in one state, but significant uncertainty and obstacles.