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The question asks whether Flavio Bolsonaro will win the most votes among voters abroad in the second round of Brazil's presidential election. The articles indicate that Bolsonaro won the first round with 47% against Lula's 45.1%, and analysts project him to win the run-off Aljazeera article. However, the specific question is about votes cast abroad, which is a distinct subset of the electorate. The articles do not provide any data or analysis on overseas voting patterns. While Bolsonaro's overall lead and momentum suggest he may also lead abroad, the lack of specific evidence on this subset makes the outcome uncertain. The first-round result shows a close race, and overseas voters may have different preferences. Given the general projection of a Bolsonaro win Aljazeera articleGuardian articleFT article, but the absence of specific information on the 'Exterior' vote, a probability slightly above 0.5 is appropriate, reflecting a modest lean toward Bolsonaro without strong certainty.
Articles in the pack
- Aljazeera article — Bolsonaro favourite to win: What Brazil’s first round of elections tells us
- Guardian article — Flávio Bolsonaro poised to win Brazilian presidency after shock first-round victory
- FT article — Brazil’s markets surge as investors bet on Flávio Bolsonaro election win