Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware be less than 275,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Delaware Senate election will be less than 275,000. Delaware is a small state with a population around 1 million, and Senate races there typically draw between 300,000 and 400,000 votes in midterms. For example, the 2020 Senate race had about 500,000 votes, but that was a presidential year. In the 2014 midterm, the Senate race had roughly 280,000 votes. The 2026 race features incumbent Chris Coons, who is heavily favored, and the primary is described as low-drama Aljazeera article. Low-drama races can suppress turnout, but the presence of a Republican challenger and the national environment may still bring out voters. The 275,000 threshold is close to the historical midterm turnout, so the probability is near 50%. However, given that midterm turnout in Delaware has often been slightly above 275,000 in recent non-presidential years (e.g., 2018 had about 330,000 votes for Senate), and there is no indication of an unusually low-turnout scenario, I lean slightly toward the total being above 275,000. But the margin is thin, so I set the probability at 0.6 for YES (less than 275,000).