Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

The impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte is underway, but the Senate's composition and recent leadership changes suggest a conviction is far from certain. Article 4 reports that the Senate president allied with Duterte was removed ahead of the trial, indicating that the chamber is closely divided between Duterte and Marcos supporters Post article. This removal could weaken Duterte's position, but it does not guarantee the two-thirds majority needed for conviction. Articles 1, 2, and 3 confirm that the trial has started and that President Marcos has approved the release of Duterte's tax records, which may provide evidence against her Reuters articleBBC SaraBBC Sara. However, the fact that Duterte has been impeached twice (Articles 5 and 6) shows the House's determination, but the Senate has not yet signaled a clear path to conviction Guardian articleBBC Sara. Given the political nature of the trial and the need for a supermajority, the probability of conviction remains below even odds, though the trial is ongoing and could shift with new evidence or political developments.