Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election?

The two available polls give conflicting signals. Article Ground Atlas reports an AtlasIntel poll from late September/early October showing Hana Ghassan winning the first round outright with 51.3%, within a 3-point margin of error. Article Ground Quaest reports a Quaest poll from October 2-3 showing Dr. Daniel Santos leading by 9 points, with a 2-point margin of error. Both polls are recent and have reasonable sample sizes, but they point in opposite directions. The AtlasIntel poll suggests a YES outcome, while the Quaest poll suggests a NO outcome. Without additional context to weigh the reliability or methodology differences, the evidence is evenly balanced. The election is still months away (October 2026), and no other articles provide further clarity. Therefore, the probability is set at 0.50, reflecting genuine uncertainty.