China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

The question asks whether China will overtake the U.S. economy by 2030, with resolution based on GDP comparison. The provided articles focus on trade wars and sanctions, not on direct GDP projections or economic growth data. Article Post article discusses the U.S.-Canada trade war and China's aim to capitalize on it, which could marginally benefit China's relative economic position but does not quantify any GDP impact. Article NYT article covers U.S. sanctions on Iran and China's role as a major oil buyer, which is geopolitical and not directly tied to overall GDP growth. Neither article provides evidence that China's GDP will surpass the U.S. by 2030. Given the lack of direct economic forecasts and the complexity of such an overtaking (which would require sustained higher growth rates), the probability is below 0.5 but not extremely low, as the articles hint at potential U.S. self-inflicted economic harm that could slightly improve China's relative standing. However, without concrete data, I stay cautious and assign a moderate-low probability.