Will the Republican Party win the UT-01 House seat?

Utah's 1st Congressional District is a strongly Republican seat; the Cook Partisan Voting Index rates it R+16, and the incumbent, Blake Moore, is a Republican who has won re-election comfortably. The 2026 midterm elections are still over a year away, but no credible reporting suggests a competitive Democratic challenge or a shift in the district's partisan lean. The BBC article BBC article discusses Republican candidates' strategies regarding Trump but does not mention UT-01 or any specific vulnerability there. Without any evidence of a Democratic upset or a significant change in voter sentiment, the baseline probability that the Republican Party retains the seat is very high. However, I assign a small discount (0.85 rather than 0.99) to account for the possibility of unforeseen events (e.g., a scandal, a third-party spoiler, or a national wave) that could alter the outcome before November 2026.