Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?

The only available article Bloomberg article reports that São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas has already secured the endorsement of his party and the support of 12 parties for his re-election bid, and that he leads his likely main opponent, Fernando Haddad, by a significant margin (41% to 26%) in a Genial/Quaest poll. This suggests a strong electoral position more than two years before the election. However, the article does not provide any information about other potential candidates, the full electoral landscape, or whether this lead is durable. The election is still far off, and many factors could change. Therefore, while the incumbent appears favored, the probability is set at 0.65, reflecting a moderate but not certain advantage, consistent with the available polling and political support data.