Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be less than 58%?

The question asks whether voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election will be less than 58%. The articles describe a highly polarized political environment with a snap election called after President Vučić resigned to run for prime minister Aljazeera articleBBC article. The student-led protests and widespread anti-government sentiment suggest high mobilization, which typically increases turnout. However, the articles also reveal a significant administrative issue: more than half a million voters are registered without a precise address in the voter list Ground article. This could depress turnout if those voters face practical barriers to voting, or it could inflate the denominator of eligible voters without a corresponding increase in votes cast, thereby lowering the reported turnout rate. The 58% threshold is relatively low compared to historical Serbian parliamentary elections (e.g., around 58-60% in recent years). Given the intense political stakes and the mobilization of both pro-government and opposition supporters, turnout is likely to be at least moderate. The administrative irregularities might reduce the official rate, but the high salience of the election probably keeps turnout above 58%. Therefore, the probability that turnout is less than 58% is estimated at 0.35.