Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?

The question asks whether Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir will appear on the same party list for the 2026 Knesset elections. The provided news articles Guardian article and Post article discuss Ben-Gvir's extreme statements and actions, but they do not mention any negotiations, agreements, or plans regarding a joint list with Smotrich. Without any reported evidence of a merger or technical bloc between their parties (Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit), the baseline probability is low. Historically, these two politicians have run on separate lists in previous elections, and while they share a far-right ideology, personal rivalries and differing bases make a unified list uncertain. The resolution criteria require actual submission of a joint list by September 8, 2026, and no current reporting suggests such a move is imminent. Therefore, a probability of 0.35 reflects a cautious NO leaning, acknowledging that a merger is possible but not supported by the available information.