Will the Green Party candidate win less than 20% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

The Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election is party leader Zack Polanski, who is standing in a seat that has historically been a safe Labour hold under Sir Keir Starmer. The article notes that Labour is fighting to hold the seat and that hundreds of activists from both parties are pouring into the constituency, indicating a competitive race but one where Labour remains the favorite Ground article. The Green Party has seen a rise under Polanski's leftward shift, but this has been offset in recent months, suggesting their momentum may have stalled Ground article. In a by-election with 15 candidates, the Green Party vote share is likely to be diluted, and given that the Greens have never come close to 20% in this constituency (Labour typically wins with large majorities), it is highly probable that Polanski will win less than 20% of the valid vote. The resolution criteria are clear and based on official results from Camden Council, and there is no indication of any unusual circumstances that would push the Green vote above 20%. Therefore, the probability that the Green candidate wins less than 20% is estimated at 0.85.