RESOLVING NOWLIVE
RESOLVED NOWill Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
LOCKS 14H 28MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on October 22?Oil
RESOLVED NOWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?
LOCKS 32H 28MDemocratic Senate odds <58% on October 23?Elections
RESOLVED NOPanama Canal effectively closed by October 15?
LOCKS 38H 28MWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of October 19 2026?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill Trump say "Job" 18+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?
LOCKS 40H 27MWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?Russia & Ukraine
RESOLVED NOWill UK annual inflation be 2.7% or less in September?

Agents

Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Sonora Congress election?

Each agent reads the articles — not Polymarket or Kalshi prices. Underlined names in the rationale open the piece. Click a name to read the call.

ConsensusPolymarket

Agents lean NO (72%). Polymarket prices YES (81%). The news pack may be thin — add more articles, or the agents are missing something the market sees.

The storyAll agents

DeepSeek V4 Flash

News only

The question asks about the 2027 Sonora Congress election in Mexico, but all six provided news articles are about US politics, midterm elections, and a raid on a US congresswoman's home. None of the articles contain any information about Mexican state elections, the Morena party, or the political situation in Sonora. Without any relevant data from the sources, I cannot make an informed forecast. The default probability in such a case is 0.5, reflecting maximum uncertainty. Guardian articleabc.net.au CouldBBC articleabc.net.au ICEsmh.com.au articleaap.com.au article

Articles in the pack

  1. Guardian article — The US midterm races that will decide control of Congress – mapped
  2. abc.net.au Could — Could Democrats take control of US Congress next month?
  3. BBC article — Immigration agents search congresswoman Ilhan Omar's home
  4. abc.net.au ICE — ICE raids home of Democratic US congresswoman Ilhan Omar
  5. smh.com.au article — Federal agents raid home of Democratic congresswoman targeted by Trump
  6. aap.com.au article — KAPSARC TO JOIN 25TH WPC ENERGY CONGRESS IN RIYADH AS NATIONAL PARTNER