Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

The question asks whether the Federal Reserve will implement another rate hike in 2026, specifically between September 17 and the December 8-9 meeting. The resolution criteria exclude the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, so any hike must occur after that date. Article Ground Fed quotes New York Fed President John Williams on September 24 saying it is 'reasonable' to think the Fed might need to raise rates again before the end of the year, citing inflation risks and noting that market forecasts at that time showed investors thought another hike was likely. This is a direct signal from a senior Fed official that a hike is possible. However, article Ground Asian reports that easing worries over inflation have reduced the odds for another Fed rate hike, suggesting that the economic data may be moving against further tightening. Article AP article is a general market preview that does not provide a clear directional signal. The balance of evidence is mixed: a Fed official has publicly left the door open, but the broader trend in inflation data appears to be reducing the likelihood of a hike. Given that the resolution period is still over a year away and the Fed has signaled a cautious approach, the probability of a hike is below even but not negligible. I assign a probability of 0.35, reflecting a tilt toward no hike but acknowledging the possibility raised by Williams' comments.